The Chinese spy balloon which floated across much of our country was certainly a provocative act. Was it meant to intimidate the United States? Possibly. It’s the theory adopted by most of our politicians and our media. We were rightfully angered and confused by the Chinese invasion of our sky. We wanted the balloon shot down. The United States Air Force accomplished the mission in their usual effective manner once the balloon was out to sea but still in US territory. We cheered their success.
Does anyone believe the Chinese expected anything else? But to what end? Did they gather enough valuable intelligence data to justify what amounted to an act of war? Doubtful. Whoever calculated the impact of the balloon mission was confident that we would not declare war over it. We would take actions to display our legitimate anger, shoot down the balloon in a responsible way, find out what the balloon was doing, launch protests with the Chinese government over the matter and go back to the business of negotiation.
But as we return to business, it will not be business as usual. President Xi will not be the leader Secretary of State Antony Blinken was expected to see. When Blinken was on his way to Beijing, it was thought by many to be a huge propaganda win for the Chinese. When the balloon incident turned Blinken back and indefinitely postponed his visit, it became a massive embarrassment to Xi.
Watching this incident play out reminded me of a trip of my own to China several years ago. One of the meetings was with a top official in the Chinese Foreign Office. The trip followed closely on the secret Chinese shootdown of one of its own satellites. Space had been polluted in consequential ways which still reverberate. Reports were that the People’s Liberation Army, the PLA, had ordered the test of the anti-satellite weapon. I asked the government’s Chinese Foreign Officer about it. “Did your office know about it in advance of the test?” There was a long pause and then a reluctant answer, “No.” “Was anyone on the civil side of the government informed of the test?” Again, a very long pause and another answer, “No.” Clearly the PLA had decided on its own to make a strategically provocative test and did so asking no one’s permission and ignoring whatever the world might think.
On that same trip I spent some time with one of the Chinese billionaires who was remarkedly candid. At one point he said that there are three things that the Chinese Communist Party, the CCP, feared and knew could take them out of power. One is the massive toxicity of the water in China. Another is their inability to clear the peasants off their two acre plots of land given the peasants by Mao. If you cannot clear the land, you cannot implement the modern mechanized farming needed to feed the population. And the third danger for the CCP was the independent power of the PLA.
The three perilous conditions for the CCP still exist. The water is still toxic. The country still cannot independently feed its people and has to rely on foreign sources for food, including the United States. The PLA remains a power beyond government control.
At this moment, it should not be dismissed that the balloon over America was the work of the PLA. Coming off the recent CCP meeting where President Xi consolidated his power, the PLA was said to be unhappy. Xi’s clear intent to wield his dictatorial stature with new policies could be a problem. One of the areas of policy focus was said to be the battle against corruption where government officials had used their access to Chinese wealth to enrich themselves.
For many years, controlling the potential power of the PLA to threaten the government made the generals rich. By putting them on the boards of government-run companies they shared the wealth. The theory was that wealthy generals as members of the Chinese elite would accept CCP governance. It is speculative, but not out of the realm of possibility, that the PLA sees the President’s new crusade as a danger for them.
The possibility of the PLA seeing an opportunity to embarrass Xi at a moment of triumph should not be underestimated. The PLA has a history of doing provocative things. Their focus is internal. Even the build-up of military forces enhances their power, not necessarily that of the Party or the government. Could the PLA have sent the balloon over the United States without telling their own government? They have done similar things before. Could the embarrassment of Xi at a moment of triumph be a reminder that the PLA remains a force with which to be reckoned? Not impossible. We will see.
In the United States, we tend to focus on the great power competition. As the world’s leading economic and military nation, it is not surprising we should do so. But in this instance, we find it hard to fathom why the Chinese superpower would do such an outrageous thing. It just might not be about us. It might be about them.